現時新聞的重點已由日本地震轉為核子事件，而事件已不是核子危機，而是已發生的核子災難。日本首相很早之前已說要準備整個日本東部全毀，現時看來會有可能。究竟事件發展下去會怎樣呢？似乎情況穩定前還會再轉壞。與其等待末日來臨，不如上互聯網找尋已知事實和最可能的局面。
核子設施最壞的意外是核心熔毀，主要原因是反應堆泠卻速度低於核子分裂和衰變發熱的速度，以致核心過熱燃料棒超出熔點而熔毀。現時東電已承認四個反應堆都不能有效泠卻而最少兩個已局部熔毀。核心過熱時反應堆的壓力會大大增加，原則上容器和保護外殼可以抵禦很大的壓力，但若有損毀則輻射物質會外洩。福島的設施已經歷數次爆炸，保護設備已有損傷，輻射物質正不停洩漏。但最令人擔憂的核心爆炸卻不大可能發生，因為核心連鎖反應已停止，只是輻射性燃料無法被處理。
現時最逼切的工作是修復反應堆冷卻系統，但東電似乎束手無策，看來還需數週至數月才可解決。期間將繼續有工作人員傷亡情況，因為他們要冒死進入高輻射危險地帶工作。而輻射物質洩漏會一直持續，幅度和範圍都會增加，日本東部輻射污染程度會加劇，直到反應堆全部受控，之後清理污染需要很長時間，要恢復正常經濟活動需時更久。
長遠的是善後問題。四個損壞的反應堆已不能使用，大量的核子廢物需要處理。網上流傳一個疑問，是日本如何處理過去使用過的核子燃料。我只能找到一個簡單的說明。日本原來的政策是將用過的燃料處理再使用，燃料棒送到英國和法國處理；但在2007年，她在青森縣六所村建了一個處理廠，自行試驗處理廢料。同時日本準備於2040年將核子廢料永久深藏地底，但直至現時為止尚未找到適合地點。更大的難題是熔毀了的核心不是完整的燃料棒，而是一堆和雜質鋼鐵混合一起重量很大的廢物。如果不能安全移動，就必須就地永久密封，而該地點更長時間不能接近。
對週邊國家和香港的影響卻是心理大於實際。現時輻射粒子不是強力爆炸噴發而是慢速洩漏，重粒子會散佈於災區，只有氣化的輕粒子會升到高空再吹到遠處，或是經海洋散佈，但會稀釋至無害程度。雖然長遠來說致癌風險會輕微增加，但危險性比吸煙、醉駕和不扣安全帶還要低。反而由災區帶出的物質，如食物，貨物和交通物流風險較高。所以很多人會對日本東部任何產品都有介心。日本貨品在香港的市場會下調，但香港的物資主要來源是中國大陸，影響應該是很輕微。
Wednesday, March 2, 2011
How to give out $6000
Is it good news? The Financial Secretary just announced that, instead of injecting $6000 to Mandatory Provident Fund accounts, the government would give out $6000 cash instead. He said:
1. This would be given to citizens with permanent Hong Kong Identity Card.
2. Citizens could, according to their own needs and wishes, collect the amount in total.
3. The procedures would include the element of encouraging saving.
The Financial Secretary has just made up his mind. The payout would have to be carried out within this year. Let's say you are the officer entrusted with this task. Don't panic; it is just a thought exercise for the time being.
How to get the records of permanent Hong Kong Identity Card and who is responsible for the payment? I think it is obvious that Immigration Department should have such records. For payment, the possible candidates are the Treasury, Social welfare Department, Home Affairs Department, or simply the Immigration Department. There will be a power fight at the top level of not getting the job.
The simplest idea is to let people queue up with their Identity Card in hand to collect the cash. But it doesn't work that way. There must be a system authenticating recipients, preventing double payments and keeping accounts. I envisage there will be a new computer system with database of Identity Card records downloaded from the Immigration Department. Like the case in Macau, citizens may need to register first. This will give a chance for the government to inspect all Identity Cards to weed out fakes, renew all addresses and particulars, and possibly collect bank account numbers and authorization for payment. This is a very valuable database with much personal information.
Things get more complicated as citizens may, according to their own needs and wishes, collect the amount in total. I read this several times in order to make sure that he was not saying citizens would collect the amount in total and spent it according to their own needs and wishes. Citizens may wish to collect the amount by installments, or at least this option should be open as a choice. This will make the system much more complicated.
I do not understand how the procedures of giving out money could encourage saving. This requires some innovative thinking. Perhaps the amount could be converted to the inflation-linked bond with priority of subscribing. Or the amount could be paid as fixed bank deposit for collection next year. This calls for all sorts of possibilities. Do you have any good ideas? If so, you may get the job and a rapid promotion.
1. This would be given to citizens with permanent Hong Kong Identity Card.
2. Citizens could, according to their own needs and wishes, collect the amount in total.
3. The procedures would include the element of encouraging saving.
The Financial Secretary has just made up his mind. The payout would have to be carried out within this year. Let's say you are the officer entrusted with this task. Don't panic; it is just a thought exercise for the time being.
How to get the records of permanent Hong Kong Identity Card and who is responsible for the payment? I think it is obvious that Immigration Department should have such records. For payment, the possible candidates are the Treasury, Social welfare Department, Home Affairs Department, or simply the Immigration Department. There will be a power fight at the top level of not getting the job.
The simplest idea is to let people queue up with their Identity Card in hand to collect the cash. But it doesn't work that way. There must be a system authenticating recipients, preventing double payments and keeping accounts. I envisage there will be a new computer system with database of Identity Card records downloaded from the Immigration Department. Like the case in Macau, citizens may need to register first. This will give a chance for the government to inspect all Identity Cards to weed out fakes, renew all addresses and particulars, and possibly collect bank account numbers and authorization for payment. This is a very valuable database with much personal information.
Things get more complicated as citizens may, according to their own needs and wishes, collect the amount in total. I read this several times in order to make sure that he was not saying citizens would collect the amount in total and spent it according to their own needs and wishes. Citizens may wish to collect the amount by installments, or at least this option should be open as a choice. This will make the system much more complicated.
I do not understand how the procedures of giving out money could encourage saving. This requires some innovative thinking. Perhaps the amount could be converted to the inflation-linked bond with priority of subscribing. Or the amount could be paid as fixed bank deposit for collection next year. This calls for all sorts of possibilities. Do you have any good ideas? If so, you may get the job and a rapid promotion.
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